Since the first time I set my eyes upon prices and price movements in the markets the use of visual representation of price movement to identify trends became the obvious passion. The 30 year journey has evolved starting from price and volume information to now include Macroeconomic cycles business performance statistics and everything about markets around the world.
The early learning from Dow Theory and Momentum Trading was great to follow trends but not to identify trend change or false signals. From 1994-1997 my exposure to fundamental and balance sheet research brought out the gaps between value and trend that needed to be filled. In 1999 I introduced myself to Elliott Wave analysis and that changed everything. The strike rates and accuracy moved up considerably in my trading and forecasts. Elliott Waves captured societal trends and the points of change in the mass public mood. It is the only technical tool that has forecasting capability v/s other tools that are trend following in nature. The combination of both is what brings out the best of having a view and execution of it. I had my 10 years and 10,000 hours of learning. During this period I worked first with Dalal Street Journal completed my MBA in Finance and joined a proprietary trading firm Sanwa Finance. I simultaneously started to write the Blog Indiacharts to share my growing understanding freely online.
My longest Journey was with Sharekhan Ltd where I started as a Market Analyst. After calling the bottom of the bear market right after 9/11 in 2001 I took on the role of Head of Research and later Market Strategist. In an attempt to change the way we do Research on stocks I developed the Value Wave Model that combined the Long term Elliott Wave Fractal of a company with its Value and Growth phases of the business cycle. The performance of the forecasts made back then give me great confidence on its application has for long term investing.
As a Fund Manager I launched the First Portfolio Management Service based on Absolute returns using managed futures strategies in the Nifty and Stocks. By 2010 our returns were near 100% [on zero leverage], v/s Nifty at 0%. Having read about the Kondratieff cycle in 1997 I got down to measuring and mapping it for the Indian stock market in 2007. In 2010, I wrote "The Indian Economic Winter" report mapping India’s Kondratieff economic cycle to forecast the coming of an economic winter and debt problems in the corporate sector. Here I was able to put together the 70-100 year economic cycle in context of an Elliott wave Supercycle of 5 waves up and 3 waves down over the same time horizon. Now it was clear that 2001 kicked off India’s Economic Autumn bull market, and an Economic winter follows. In an attempt to fully commit myself with the business of sharing my market studies and educating the world on these models I launched the paid Newsletter ‘Indiacharts Insiders’ in 2013. To those who are willing to pay heed to these market forecasts it can protect them from financial disasters, and then actually help them create wealth.
An 18 year Journey at Sharekhan ended as I stepped down being a Fund manager to Managing my own. In Dec 2019 we Launched Indiacharts Mentorship Program, the most comprehensive Learning experience for Serious and Passionate traders/investors wanting to get the A-Z of what I call ‘Complete Market Analysis’ at one place in a rigorous 3 month experience. This Journey has just started.