The Covid 19 Mystery

A deep dive into what is working on the Pandemic - 

People are finding hope in the Idea that Maharashtra's partial lockdown may have flattened the curve. It maybe early days but if this is working then very quickly we will need to implement that everywhere else. Why?

The national count shows no signs of abating and everywhere I checked from karnataka to Rajasthan or Delhi Gujarat or Tamil Nadu, everywhere the numbers are rising everyday. Many surpassed their previous peaks. So if some partial lockdown is the only way to stall the spread [given people negligence] firm steps are needed. Even in the midst of the crisis I see people being irresponsible with masks and even people covid positive raoming about without informing others. The degree of responsibility expected of mature individuals is also missing at many places. So take care of yourselves because this is serious.

But the bigger question is how can we get out of it. Will vaccinations help? Hope is a strategy if nothing else. For now, this is where we are on vaccination. So the follow-up question should be how the countries with maximum vaccinations are doing? Let's take a look.

Going top-down on the list above lets see the numbers in daily new cases

It is only empirical evidence but we may draw a hopeful conclusion that places with the most vaccinations have seen their curves turn lower or flatten, but as we go lower that is not true from Gernamny below onward to France or Italy cases are now back near the highs even though we see flattening near the highs in France. Where penetration is low and still building we are dealing with an even bigger problem.

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Now the one place where data is near zero is China but then we can all argue that we do not trust data out of China. They may never report it but the table above shows the low penetration of vaccines in China. India and Brazil also have low penetration and our cases are at new all-time highs. So what else works. Partial lockdowns may work as we can see in the case of Australia that implemented them in Oct-Dec for places like Melbourne where cases moved up a bit. Clearly, nothing happened here.

My analysis may appear like guesswork but when you look at the world meter below global cases are back near all-time highs, you have to investigate where cases have fallen and why. Everywhere else we are witnessing 2nd and 3rd waves for the Covid-19 pandemic. The rest of the world is looking for answers.