Are the Covid Second Wave Fears Real ?

While it is true that we are witnessing a spike in cases in Europe USA to new all time highs, and many other parts of the world. Last week Delhi reported a new high in daily new cases as shown below

Is this an alarming trend that is out of control? If we simply move down to the death rate chart it shows things more in control than before.

Also, it is important to understand if the above trend is national. Will Mumbai see the same? Lets loo. The chart below of New York shows that the big apple has not seen a second wave as seen at the National level

California too has not seen the same and these two were hotspots earlier in the year. The real bump up is in places like Illinois, Tennesse, Pennsylvania, etc. In India too it is in the south like Bangalore, and smaller cities where cases did not explode earlier and became complacent are probably seeing more trouble. Hope is that better medical preparedness and medication will ensure that most recover from the virus.

This next chart of Active cases across Indian states gives you the real picture of what is going on. Maharashtra is clearly going from the peak downward. But in the month of October Karnataka/Bangalore [dark blue and now fallen below the orange line] was still exploding but peaked by the 10th of October. The concerning areas are Kerala [orange line, shown by red arrow] and Orissa [blue] that are now rising above some other states, and if you are there take care and extra precautions. Just because nothing has happened in your state does not mean you should stop wearing masks and get complacent is the clear message of the second wave of the crisis.

From a financial market standpoint, there is no reason to believe that everything is going to shut down again based on the above data. Places of concern need to be addressed and please do not get complacent is the only message.