A Second Wave Staring at us again

The risks of a second wave are appearing more real by the day even though the second wave might only be a whimper. The size of the bump up so far in daily new cases on a national basis for India appears small but it is persistent. The risk is that the numbers keep rising as infections spread in a country that has become complacent given that everything has been opened up. So I am not happy about this chart as we go into a national vaccination drive whose effects are still to be seen.

It definitely calls for people to remain a little cautious for a while longer. Even as some of the spikes were attributed to group activities in Maharashtra the daily cases are persistent in a couple of states beyond Maharashtra so that is my worry.

We can find a bump in Gujarat again where cases were sticky just a few months ago.

The same can also be seen in MP. It looks like a small bump up but it is persistence in daily data remaining at a higher level. The real question is whether these numbers can rise further. There are some other regions as well with small bumps higher and sticky. Stay alert for a few more weeks to see if this fades with new strict measures.