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4 Feb 202102:00 PM

When I look at the NTPC chart one thing is clear that like all PSU stocks along consolidation phase may be coming to an end at the lower end of the trading range which has been put to test for the 3rd time since 2008. Prices fell slightly below it and since then a probably forming a triangle. I come to this conclusion as the most recent rally in PSU stocks from the October low does not appear impulsive in the case of NTPC, and therefore the blue lines from the March 2020 bottom show it to be forming a triangle where wave E of the triangle may have completed the most recent low and is truncated meaning that wave E did not touch the lower blue line but only completed a 61.8% retracement of wave C. In the last few days however the stock should have started an impulsive move on the upside with the rest of the sector and should attempt to break out of the triangle pattern above the blue line at 106. Measuring the size of the triangle the breakout would then set up to attempt the top end of the larger trading range of the last decade near 147.

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