Nifty Elliott Wave Update

MARKET UPDATE: 28 FEB 2021

NIFTY
TIME	TREND	UP LEVEL	DOWN LEVEL
Medium term trend	Up	15432-15667	14230-13900

Explanatory Note: If Higher highs and higher lows are a trend, it is not violated till 13661 is not broken.

From the bottom of March, we are at the end of the 9th wave. If I mark the advance from the Sept bottom as 1-2-3-4-5 of the 5th wave then a 5 wave rally can be considered as complete. But I am not, thus taking the risk of considering an extension based on what we see in cyclical sectors, the dollar global equity markets. Then this week's decline is only wave ii of 3 of 3. A small correction inside a larger rising trend. And as repeated before post-budget rallies often fade before a more serious rally starts. We are in the fade process. The lower channel line on this chart is at 13900. Down for 2 weeks similar to the Jan correction in time now. The RSI is back at 64 after a negative divergence. The markings are one more way to mark the 9 waves as they keep extending. It is not wrong as long as the rules are not violated to mark it differently.

The RSI is back at 69 but no negative divergence here. The momentum indicator is crossing back to a sell here but that has happened before. So we watch trendlines and averages for the trend to remain in tact. Bank nifty has its rising channel line support at 33000. Since wave 1 subdivided into 5 waves and wave 3 subdivided into 5 waves so should wave 5 is my presumption, till proven wrong. So this week's fall is still wave ii of 5 in progress and iii of 5 up should come next.