Nifty Elliott Wave Update

MARKET UPDATE: 24 JAN 2021

NIFTY
TIME	TREND	UP LEVEL	DOWN LEVEL
Medium term trend	Up	14948	13953

Explanatory Note: Wave 3 is nearly complete and a 4th wave correction may follow after one last rush of blood into the budget.

Changing the wave counts to come closer to my daily waves. Here wave 3 would have completed only wave iv of 3, if iii of 3 is short. So one final move up to new highs in v of 3 would complete wave 3 into the budget. The upper band is at 14948 and the upper channel line is now closer to 15300. Going by the LSR view 4 weeks in wave 5 were to complete by 22/01 and that time period is over and markets did close down this week. Then wave 5 is over and the correction from the five-wave rally from the Sept bottom has already started. I have put 14300 or the 20dma as the pivot to decide which is the case. As long as we hold that v of 3 up to one more new high is due. If daily charts break then I will continue with last week's wave count and end something at this week's market top. 

Bank nifty is more disturbing because the daily and weekly momentum are now in sell mode and it broke the 20dma [on daily charts] on Friday. Add to that, on weekly charts, 5 waves up from the Sept bottom can be made to appear as complete. I have kept it open to one last move higher in wave v of 3 before it completes. The trendline of the last two highs at 33600 then maybe put to test. This requires the daily charts to hold the support at the pivot 30778 as final support. Ahead of a seasonal event, this is going to keep us on our toes. I will not rule out just one more new high in banks as well ahead of the budget as part of wave 3 completing if nifty has to do what as well, as noted above. In short both Nifty and Bank nifty indicate a last rally into the budget to complete wave 3 at some degree and then a correction for the rest of Feb in wave 4.