Nifty Elliott Wave Update

MARKET UPDATE: 12 OCT 2020

NIFTY
TIME	TREND	UP LEVEL	DOWN LEVEL
Medium term trend	Up	12147-12700	11163

Explanatory Note: Wave 5 for Nifty and wave 3 for bank nifty in progress. A retest of the Jan 2020 high on cards

The ideal scenario is that we are in wave 5 up and that goes to 12500+. But I have marked an alternate scenario which says in red, or 1. This is in line with what world markets like the US or the DAX or even the bank nifty are doing. Wave 3 up at a larger degree of time. I will keep both odds open for now and watch the behavior. A normal 5th wave will take the weekly momentum indicator back into buy mode eventually but may not make a higher high resulting in a negative divergence at the end of wave 5. The upper Bollinger band at 12147 is the immediate resistance and above that, the rising channel goes to as far as 12700. The lower end of the channel is at 11163.

 

Bank nifty moved back up fast enough in wave 3 to not only close above the 40dema but also push the weekly momentum back into buy mode. This has happened without completing a cycle back to the zero line. Such moves are usually fast and therefore the speed being seen in wave 3 for bank nifty is likely to continue for a while. Expect the wave 1 high of 25232 to get taken out. Then we head to 26300 near 61.8% of the entire fall between Jan and March 2020.