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Nifty Elliott Wave Update

11 Apr 2021 ‚óŹ 09:50 AM

MARKET UPDATE: 11 APR 2021

   NIFTY          
 TIME TREND UP LEVEL   DOWN LEVEL
 Medium-term trend Up 15597 14328

Explanatory Note: Nifty is making slow progress but heading toward new highs 

The 20-week support is the trailing support at 14328 and holding this level we should be heading toward the upper band near 15597. The market does not behave the way you want it to. Last year the fear of lockdown caused the market to crash before the event and bottomed right around when the lockdown started. It has not looked back since. The second was coming like a train from very far if you saw the data I have been publishing since the start of the month. nifty say a 5-week correction from the FEB top. Now the second wave is here and so are negative real interest rates and GSAP 1.0. Stay with the market trend, right now that is bullish even if it is so selectively. The most affected sectors are known and may be avoided. What is the weightage of Malls, retail outlets, travel, and hospitality in the index? I am not undermining the tragedy but trying to understand market behavior.

Bank nifty is about to complete its downward correction before 31212 and turn up to go higher. Bank nifty closed marginally below the 20-week average. We are in the last leg down which is almost complete for banking. Bank nifty broke the 20-week average in wave 2 as well in Sept for one week and that did not last so I am not jumping to bearish conclusions. Also based on alternation wave 2 was near 61.8% retracement and wave 4 is near 38.2% at 31212. So wave 4 down should complete anytime between now and 31212. Wave 5 up will follow.

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