Nifty Elliott Wave Update

MARKET UPDATE: 01 AUG 2020

NIFTY
TIME	TREND	UP LEVEL	DOWN LEVEL
Medium term trend	Up	11486-11900	10581

Explanatory Note : Wave 3 continues amid rotation between stocks/sectors.

Nifty closed down for the week and that is marked as wave IV of 3 up. Wave IV appears almost complete on daily charts .A 23.6% retracement of wave III is at 10926 and 38.2% is at 10664 and after that the 40 week ema is at 10581. These are multiple support levels in case the decline get steeper. But as of now wave II was a one week correction and that is done here as well for wave IV. Wave V up should start soon. If I project V=I from Friday's low then we land up at 12930, a new all-time high. So the next few days are going to be interesting as I will be watching out for signs that wave V up started. Ideal the 20dma at 10952 or 23.6% retracement at 10926 will hold. While none of my metrics say that the market is overbought on indicators or sentiment, we have reached the weekly Bollinger band, a critical resistance level that needs to be pushed and should keep expanding from here for prices to rise. This week markets stopped at the band, but we need a push higher now. The upper Bollinger band is at 11486 and 78.6% of the entire crash is at 11400. 88.6% retracement is at 11900

 Bank nifty also sold off from the upper Bollinger band and on weekly charts feels more like a wave 2 pullback still going on. 38.2% retracement is at 20910. The 20 week average below that is at 20457. Wave 2 can complete at one of these levels. So while some more downside may exist, once we start up it should be wave 3.