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Nifty Daily

29 Jan 2021 ‚óŹ 02:25 PM





Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down to Up  14310 13600

The damage done in 3 days makes it look like a lot but so far it is within the size of routine corrections we have seen. What is rare is a pre-budget correction of this size. So with everything still telling me that we are very oversold and that the larger bullish view is still intact, I think the trend up has to start. The budget volatility will be behind us soon. First, start with the expectation of a 61.8% retracement of the entire fall and a test of the 20dma near 14314. Then 78.6% retracement is at 14508. If there is anything wrong with the view then we should falter at one of these two levels. Else we should eventually go to new highs in wave 5 of this advance from the Sept low.

Nifty needs to break out of the falling trend channel for the 6-day decline above 13840 to change the trend from up to down. The lower trendline support is at 13564. The first resistance is near today's high at 13966. 

And now at 7 and 3 the data just got way extreme. the reading of 3 on the 9-day average swing is the lowest since? That is 18-Mar-2020. Yes, that was the pandemic. So this is the most one-sided decline since.

Elliot wave usage

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Up  31710 29687

Bank nifty bounced and closed positive despite the Nifty's decline. so we have a bullish inter-market divergence now on daily charts as well and bank nifty went above the low of wave 'a' intraday which means that the decline cannot transform into an impulse wave down. In short, it is one more confirmation that bank nifty has bottomed out. nifty should follow. Now the next hurdle is at the 20dma at 31710. 

Elliot wave used to explain certain concepts

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