Nifty Daily

In the Long short report, I outlined the possibility of a top near or after the 22nd of Jan and we topped out on the 21st of Jan itself. In my daily notes, I have not been on top of that which is a mistake in hindsight. Also at times before trying to change wave counts I am often pushed back to my original conservative counts. So happened again.

LONG%	SHORT%
50%	50%

Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

NIFTY
TIME	TREND	Up Level	Down Level
Short term trend	Down	14310	13858-13747

Now we may have completed wave 3 from the Oct low, a 5 wave move. The fall looks like a-b-c going on, on the hourly charts. But if it converts into a lager impulse we will call it wave A. We do not have enough evidence yet to conclude this and will know that only after markets turn positive. Only then we can assess correctly the wave formation of the entire decline. The next support is at 13,858 near the lower Bollinger band.. The 61.8% retracement of the last rally is at 13,747. The daily momentum is back below the 0 line so at least the cycle is complete.

Nifty may face resistance near 14,157- 14,225, and will have to get past that level for the trend up to continue. Else we could dip again and move towards 13,953-13864.

The swing came down to 11, and the swing based on an average came down to 8 and is in single digits. The reading of 11 are still higher than the reading of 5 seen on 18th of Jan and therefore can result in a positive divergence whenever the market turns up.

BANK NIFTY
TIME	TREND	Up Level	Down Level
Short term trend	Down	31793	29822

I said this once that my original comes to sometimes turn out to be right. Trying to change them did not work. Now I will stay with wave 4 down and this new evidence shows up. c=a is near.29822. Wace c still does not show 5 waves and we also need to see if this a-b-c does not convert into i-ii-iii-iv-v.