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Nifty Daily

25 Mar 2021 ‚óŹ 02:40 PM





Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down 14856 14280-13600

Nifty is back at the orange trendline that coincides with 61.8% retracement of the post budget rally near 14280. If this level does not break the wave 4 argument would stronger. But the short term wave counts on the chart below suggest that the fall is not over. Any bounce from this important support might only be wave b and wave c down could break the line. So next 2 days are going to be important in watching if this support holds, and on the other hand if any bounce that occurs is corrective in nature it would give away the idea that after the bounce we go back to 13600. A wave b bounce would do 61.8% retracement of the 2 days decline to 14650 at the most and not cross the 20dma at 14856. So failure at these levels would be a sign that we are starting the next major decline. Above 14856 odds of a more bullish outcome increase. If you are watching the US market then you know we have been diverging from them for the last few weeks but we should slowly align again, so right now I am trying not to think about it and look at what is developing in your own charts.

Despite the intraday volatility prices are still inside the falling channel for wave A down so we can get a test of the lower channel line again at 14162. On the other hand a move above the upper line at 14400 would signal the start of wave b up and the previous swing high at 14675 could be tested.

The swing decline to 14, that makes it mildly oversold below 20, but not extreme oversold as in single digits. Readings below 20 do sometimes work as a market low so lets see if it is enough for wave b to start. Else we go lower first tomorrow and then get an oversold reading for a bounce.

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down  34360-34918 32750-29687

Bank nifty also paused near the 61.8% retracement of the post budget rally near 32750. A reverse parallel channel support is near 31456 as the major support. Now the fall from the point wave x down on hourly chart is 5 waves so I am trying to consider if wave a ended here and a wave b bounce can happen. A bounce back to the previous swing high of 34360 or the 20dma [34918] before we continue lower in wave c.

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