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Nifty Daily

25 Jan 2021 ‚óŹ 11:26 AM

LONG%

SHORT%

67%

33%

Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

  NIFTY          
 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Up  14766 14222

It looks weak on the face of it, and we closed below the 20dma. But turning bearish does not appear sensible when the average swing is 11, Call writing near the highs [today's number will come later in the day ]. and we have an inter-market divergence between banks midcaps and the nifty because none of the other indices broke the low that Nifty did in the second half of the day. Apart from the break of 20dma, all indicators are near oversold and so I would suspect that the breakdown is a bear trap. So for now I will retain my bullish stance. Lastly, look at the RSI below, at the point marked wave ii the RSI came down to 56, today the RSI is at 53.80, in wave iv. Wave v of 3 up to the top trend channel line near 15100 is still open. 

With the change in wave count, I have used a reverse channel from the two swing highs first and drawn below. This line was touched today and not yet broken. The fall is also a double bottom near 14220. 14220 holding we go to the top end of this rising channel near 15200.

I am again displaying two swing indicators based on the same data on top of nifty. The first one at 11 is near the bottom end of the range, below 10 would have been better though. The second one is at a higher low, so it may be developing a positive divergence, of course, we need a positive close to confirm the positive divergence.

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Up  32831 31013

Bank nifty closed the day positive and did not break the days low in the second half resulting in a bullish inter-market divergence with Nifty for now. Nifty took support near the lower Band at 31013 and should start wave V of 3 up toward 33200. Wave counts are changed again to align with the weekly discussion that wave V of 3 maybe a final push higher for this wave. 

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