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Nifty Daily

23 Sep 2020 ‚óŹ 03:41 PM





Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Up 11280-11443 11020

Some people find it hard to digest that we should still be bullish after 11,185 broke or after yesterday's low of 11,084 broke. It takes a lot of thinking and observation to decide which side of the market you want to be on. The developments on the hourly chart today are in place, and add to the confidence of wave 4 completing and setting us up for the next move higher than even yesterday, we should be ready to take off to 11800. Of course we need a positive closing to confirm that wave c of 4 is done. c=a at 11,020 was almost touched today with a positive RSI divergence on the hourly chart. On the daily chart the falling channel continues to hold as we did not close below it. The daily RSI at 39 has come down significantly. Rather than predict that 11,000 may break I would rather consider the outcome of 11,000 not breaking given the strength in individual stocks that indicates a strong trend in the underlying market. The 1st step is to recover above the 40 DEMA at 11,267 by closing above it.

The only scary moment was when prices traded below the lower end of the channel for a short period of time. They probably did so to achieve c=a equality. Once done prices recovered above the support line. The nifty should make a 2nd attempt to go back above the head and shoulders neckline at 11,235. Once it does that it should attempt to break out of the falling channel above 11,535.

The swing fell to 6, the lowest reading since May 2020. The 9 day average swing also came down to 14 and when both are near oversold that's an even better sign that the bounce back is coming.

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down 22000-22295  21031-20235

After days of losses today nifty was down and bank nifty closed positive. Bank nifty breached the wave IV low of 21,031 intraday but closed above it. The wave IV low is usually a good support zone where corrections can end. Given the weakness in banks however you would like to see more price confirmation and a clear impulse wave up starting to call a bottom. A move above 22000 intraday would be a bullish sign.


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