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Nifty Daily

19 Mar 2021 ‚óŹ 01:18 PM





Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down  14960 14314

The Nifty completed the bare minimum required of it in a normal correction in the bull market. Similar to the Sept correction it retraced 61.8% of the last leg to the gap zone, took 5 weeks, and is w-x-y done. Now the question is whether this is a wave 4 correction that can still test the 20-week average near 14000 or the wave IV low near 13600. Or alternately a more complex correction for months after a 5 wave advance. These are important questions so I am not being preemptive about a trend reversal like before after a swing reading of 3 yesterday. The bounce today is either over or will continue to the 61.8% retracement of the 5-day decline to 14960. Failure to surpass 14960 I will mark the rise from today as an X wave again. if it goes higher I may consider marking wave 4 as complete and wave 5 up as starting. But not yet. The risk of a further decline still remains on the table in my opinion.

Nifty broke out of the downward channel and maybe pulling back to the rising channel that it broke earlier. This rising channel from October is now at 14,875. Failure to go back above it will make this bounce look like a pullback after which prices can continue lower again. Above 14,875 we may retest the swing higher 15,037 and above that go towards the top end of the downward slanting channel. 

The swing bounced back to 21 so we got the bounce out of the oversold zone. Next, if this is not a bottom we should fall again to develop a positive divergence.

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down  35347 32777

Bank nifty bounced back from the 50% retracement mark on the lower end of the falling channel. I will continue to consider this an X wave till the 20 DMA near 35,347 is not cleared. Given that this is a 4th wave correction for a further pullback to the previous wave 4 low cannot be ruled out. If we break the 61.8 retracement mark near 32,777, we may go back down towards 29,687. If bank nifty goes above 35,500 we may consider the idea that wave 5 of started.


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