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Nifty Daily

18 Mar 2021 ‚óŹ 05:47 PM

LONG%

SHORT%

33%

67%

Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

  NIFTY          
 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down  14920 14314

Nifty broke all the channel lines and closed below the 40-day EMA, all of which confirms the completion of a 5 wave advance from the October low, and if this is even a 4th wave it means that we should go back to test the 4th wave of the previous advance which is at 13,596. All we need to do is map the wave structure down to that level. On an immediate basis, the nifty is at the top end of the Zone and should fill it by falling towards 14,336 or the 61.8% retracement mark near 14,300. The wave counts on the hourly chart show that the current move down in wave y is still incomplete as an ABC,  where we are in minor wave iii of iii of c.

The nifty is moving towards the lower end of the 2 channels near 14,380-14360

The only chart it signals an extreme oversold condition is the swing indicator which is reached 3. Similar readings have led to a bounce-back in the past. The only time it remains in the oversold zone for a few days before bouncing during a free fall. So the wave structure suggests a free fall in the swing suggests a possible bounce. It does mean that we are in the late stages of this move now. What may happen though is that as prices keep falling the swing indicator might actually move up and then down again and then develop a positive divergence.

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down  35468 33305-32800

Bank nifty completed a 50% retracement of the last rally and 61.8% is at 32,800. There is also a gap zone above 30,906 that would get fuelled along the way. Bank Nifty also broke the rising channel from the September low confirming 1/4 wave correction. 1/4 wave typically goes back to wave IV of the previous rise which in this case is at 29,687

 

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