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Nifty Daily

18 Jan 2021 ‚óŹ 01:20 PM





Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend N/A  14800 14091

The RSI at the top had no negative divergence which is rare. So while wave 5 could be ending, in the very short term it is hard to say we will not attempt to make one last higher high above 14653. The hourly chart shows a possible A-B-C decline from the 14653 top so this correction is so far not impulsive. I leave open wave e of 5 on top to retest the upper line. If that does not happen and we fail to go above 61.8% at 14470 then we can mark the bounce as an x wave and go on from there. The daily momentum remains in sell mode so the 20dma at 14091 is the pivot and last line of defence for the bulls.

The trendline from the Oct bottom and previous swing low is near 14128 as the next support. On the top the falling trendline from the top is at 14390 as resistance

Yesterday at 15 now today at 5 the swing is really oversold. This usually works when the underlying trend is still bullish. So a failure to work would itself mean that the underlying trend has changed. 

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend N/A  33200 31381

The 20dma support near term is at 31381. I have marked an alternate count on bank nifty for a while where we are in minor wave i and ii for bank nifty as long as we hold above the 20dma at 31381. If this proves true then there maybe upside to this index eventually and it could support the market in general. It may also push me to think of alternate counts for the Nifty. But a failure may push us to look at the weekly wave counts where wave 3 is ending. I have not resolved which is the better case so my daily and weekly counts remain different as of now. I will be watching if 31381  holds as support. If not then wave 3 might have ended only now and we are still in wave 4 down.

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