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Nifty Daily

17 Mar 2021 ‚óŹ 01:41 PM





Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down  15051 14578-14314

The decline in the nifty is coming on the back of weakness in our own market as it deviates from US equities to head lower. Today we closed below the 40-day exponential moving average and next, we should head towards the lower band at 14,578. Doing so would break the rising channel from the October bottom. This is the 4th day down but on hourly charts, we can see it as an ABC decline where wave C may continue down till 14,450 but could extend to fill the gap which is very close to the 61.8% retracement mark near 14,314. Worst-case scenario we should not rule out a 78.6% retracement up to 14,000, which would put it very close to the 20-week moving average.

On the hourly charts, it would appear as the rising channel from October has broken today, and 2 down the channels are at work, the steeper one which is at 14,450, and the larger one with its bottom end at 14,390. While ideally, 14,390 would be a bottom, if broken we would see extensions on the way down till the freefall finds meaningful support.

The swing has now declined to 12, only a few points away from being oversold, so we have to be watchful over the next few days where the market gets oversold on an intraday basis and develops a possible positive divergence on the hourly chart.

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down  35544 33305-32800

Bank nifty closed below the rising channel from the September bottom confirming the completion of a 5 wave advance for wave 3 and the start of a 4th wave correction. Prices may fall to the lower end of the downward slanting channel at 33,885 and below that attempt to fill the gap up to 33,305 and in terms of retracement the 61.8% retracement would complete near 32,800


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