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Nifty Daily

14 Sep 2020 ‚óŹ 12:18 PM





Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Up 11560-11632 11435-11185 

The hourly chart in the morning was showing a lot of subdivisions but I am forced to complete minor wave i on the daily chart. No change in the larger view that we are in wave 5 as we closed marginally above the 20dma based on the final closing for the day. Minor wvae ii worst case scenario is 61.8% of wave i at 11330, however today we managed a 50% retracement at near 11380 and that is enough too. Wave iii should get us to above the 11560 mark that we failed to take out today. Now the failure is some concern but the set up in stocks is that everything is at a support and I would rather that break before I turn any further bearish. So in my mind today's decline due to mostly banks was more of a sector issue.

Nifty closed positive in the final hour so we can presume it made a low and draw a rising channel. 11383 holds we head to the top end of the channel at 11650 next. Below 11383 the next swing low is at 11363 and the gap up is at 11327 as the final support. 

The swing jumped to 77 as the breadth was very strong. Nifty was pulled down mostly by banks but 1800 stocks were up for the day. The swing broke out of the falling trend of lower highs that caused wave 4. Wave 5 is on then.  

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down 22960  21560

Bank nifty chart is seriously concerning as it has a 5 wave decline now on the daily. Sure we get a bounce after 5 waves down are complete but its not clear as complete. This sector chart remsins the pain point. Best avoided till momentum really picks up. The lower bollinger band is at 21560 as the next support after breaking the trendline of the previous two lows. Wave wise I have chosen a running flat now where wave C is usually a 5 wave decline. Once it is complete we will again consider wave 3 up starting.

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