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Nifty Daily

14 Aug 2020 ‚óŹ 02:06 PM





Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Up 11400-11600 11172

The Intraday volatility today almost looks like a reversal but is probably not more than a knee jerk reaction. The Midcap index RSI was at 78 so the jerk off did it good in getting back to 70. The Nifty itself closed the week down but it managed to hold above the 20dma at 11172 that I wrote about in the afternoon. That is important in determining the odds of the trend going on. So we cannot say with certainty that we go down to 10900. So we should maintain a view of strength from the 20 day average. Wave v of 3 that I am anticipating maybe subdivided into waves i and ii today and iii of v should start from the days low unless broken. The days low at 11111 is important on Monday. My momentum indicators has had divergences and many buy sell signals that failed so I prefer the average at this point of time. The RSI has its first possible negative divergence but I would like more price confirmation that it means anything. the rotation between stocks has so far kept propelling the index higher and that is always a risk in this type of market where breadth has been strong. Wave ii has retraced 50% of wave i today.

I have marked the waves on this chart for a reason. When you draw the wave 2-4 channel for wave 5 up, sometimes the first waves of 5 will restes the lower channel and can break it as seen. At this time you may watch retracement levels as well. The break can be false and temporary, a shake out. 50% done today the next swing low and 61.8% coincide at 11064.

The dwing dropped sharply to 24, and it seems that everytime we get to 80 markets give a 2-3 day correction anyway now.  The swing of the ema of momentum at 58 is holding much better so far with the trend. So instead lets look at the wave count of the midcap chart as that only did wave iv of 3 today and wave v of 3 up should follow next week. So stocks may continue to do well. The real issue is with the frontline indices.

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Up  23211  21370

Bank nifty is below 21738 the 40dema but the 78.6% retracement mark near 21370 and the daily momentum is still in buy mode, the odds remain open that this could be minor wave ii of the next move up. Need to wait and watch for one more day to see it through and not jump to a conclusion. The bias then remains for a positive outcome till the low of 21370 is holding.

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