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Nifty Daily

12 Apr 2021 ‚óŹ 01:17 PM

LONG%

SHORT%

42%

58%

Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

  NIFTY          
 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Up 14720 14295

The mistake I can say is not waiting for wave z down. But this might be it, a double bottom near 14264 is possible. We closed inside the 61.8% retracement mark today and the daily momentum remains in buy mode. In fact, I might now prefer to call the entire Feb-Apr correction a triangle and mark it as a-b-c-d-e, typical of 4th waves. The lower end of the triangle is at 14146 but does not have to be touched. So the bias remains April bullish.

Nifty is trading below the lower channel line at 14481, but is it a false break, need to watch, as 4th waves do see throw under as a common feature. The trendline fo the lows is at 14146 and the trendline of the last two highs is at 14900

The swing fell sharply to 19 which puts it below 20, mildly oversold. If we bottom here it would be a second positive divergence. Else next extreme oversold reading would be in single digits.

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down  33306 29687

Bank nifty RSI at 30 is now close to where it was at in Sept when wave 2 bottomed. Bank nifty retracement by alternation is now at 38.2%. A reverse channel of all the highs at 30965 was broken today but in wave 4 such false breaks are common and need to be watched. The wave 4 of 3 swing low at 29687 should be the worst case scenario if banks remain weak. Wave wise we are in wave c of z the last move down that can end anytime.

 

 

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