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Nifty Daily

9 Sep 2020 ‚óŹ 12:20 PM





Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down 11454 -11560 11185-11111

RSI is back to 46 and the daily momentum below zero, Nifty is a falling triangle structure in wave 4 and close to the 40dema support at 11188. The triangle appears complete on hourly chart so as long as today's low holds at 11185 we start wave 5 up from here. A break would open up 11080. A positive closing today would have helped conrfirm the scenario. A move above 11375 would breakout of the triangle and the 40 hour average on the upside and would be a bullish sign intraday. 61.8% of the decline so far at 11560 will be test for the move up being wave 5 or still part of a larger triangle in wave 4. Any rally that ends in 3 waves like the one yesterday is suspect here on.

The blue lines show the downward slanting triangle. the alternate is a falling channel shown by the grey lines. The blue line will go down to 11170 and below that the next one is 11050, the upper lines are a cluster at 11375.

The swing was 2 points higher and in that sense we have a small positive divergence over the last 3 days if it means anything.. 

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down 22886  22190-21403

The daily RSI is at 44, and the momentum is back below zero after the sell signal. So clearly I got the last move in Bank nifty wrong, right that the move would occur, but wrong that it would continue. Now having said that what is this structure. On the bullish bias the chart shows that maybe wave 3 never started, the entire pattern is a running complex correction with w-x-y-x-z. Today we closed below the 40dema [22522] and got back to the bottom end of the range at the lower trendline at 22190. Bank nifty has to turn around first before I confirm any scenario so lets see if this holds true.

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