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Nifty Daily

8 Sep 2020 ‚óŹ 03:01 PM





Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down 11454  11222-11111

In the video this morning I discussed the last alternate for a dip in wave 4, a triagle formation if we go to 11222 and bottom close to it. With today's move the daily momentum is back to zero completing a cycle, this pushes me to strongly consider that wave 4 [and not IV of 3] is completing now. This was hard to call. The difference might not mean much to the market action as both are 4th waves and a triangle. This will coincide with my wave counts now on RIL and the Tech sector that wave 5 up is next for the rally that started from March. The major support though is at the 40dema at 11174.

On the hourly chart I can either draw the blue lines for a triangle or a parallel channel. If 11222 breaks then a move to the lower end of he parallel channel or next swing low near 11111 is open. 

The swing is falling again so maybe once more an oversold reading is needed here. 

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down 24051  22535-22240

First support is at the 40dema at 22535 on closing basis. If that holds great else the 78.6% retracement is at 22240. Bank nifty wave count is not exactly what I would wish for especially after wave 3 started. So it still needs thinking in the short term given the deep retracement. The rally ended in 3 waves on a daily chart can be a concern for banking in general. The sectors clouds remain. The chart shows the wedge like look of the entire pattern from March now. Will come back with the best alternate after the most recent breakout rally failed. once it stabilises we will know better. Some people might even suggest a leading diagonal now, for that prices need to stop at a key retracement and turn up again. Lets see how this unfolds. I could also stick with wave 3 subdividing. Waiting for more evidence over the next few days.

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