Nifty Elliott Wave Update

MARKET UPDATE: 21 JUN 2020

NIFTY
TIME	TREND	UP LEVEL	DOWN LEVEL
Medium term trend	Up	10550-11257	9544-9400

Explanatory Note : The third wave is subdividing opening up to an extended move.

My preference toward 1-2-3 will get shifted once we surpass the recent high of 10328. The 40 week average at 10490 is now the immediate hurdle, after that on weekly charts we open up to going all the way to the upper Bollinger band at 12263, which is a declining number. It appears very far. If this bounce was a bear market rally it would not be impulsive and would not go above 10550. Right now the set up indicates that we are heading beyond that number especially as wave 3 or C is subdividing into 5 waves. Nifty is back above the 20 week average and the weekly momentum cycle is now complete for the bear side coming back above the zero line. Now a new bull/bear cycle is to start on the momentum. Above 10328 it is a bull cycle and that will open up all levels on the upside. Wave III=I goes to near 11200-11300.

Bank nifty is in a very different stage of the move. A lot more to catch up with Nifty as the weekly momentum is lagging behind and far below the zero line. I have marked the bottom for bank nifty as a truncated wave Z at a higher bottom than wave Y. That means we are in wave 3 up now from this week. Wave 3 should get past the 21807 high made in wave 1 and then head to the 20/40 day moving averages at 22600 and 24786. These two levels coincide with the 38.2% and 50% retracement mark. Again far behind the Nifty that is close to the 61.8% mark. So banks have to do the catching up with the market and can do so quickly.