Nifty Daily

LONG%	SHORT%
83%	17%

Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

NIFTY
TIME	TREND	Up Level	Down Level
Short term trend	Down	10860	10605-10300

Following yesterday's doji star pattern the nifty closed down but not below yesterday's low of 10,689. The reversal does complete a possible leading diagonal in wave 1 unless there are a few more minor extensions in the structure. If the trendline of the wedge at 10,615 breaks then we should head back to the 20 week average near 10,300. A 38.2% retracement of wave 1 would come to 10,085 near the 40 DEMA. Staying below 10,860 we should anticipate a pullback in the near-term. Nifty is also topping out close to the 66% retracement of the entire fall from January, at 10,760. Volumes today were also higher then the last few days for a down day.

Nifty failed to sustain above the top end of the wedge at 10,756 now. Staying below that this is the failure to breakout and we should retest the lower end of the wedge at just above 10,600. In the process we should fill the gap between 10,630 and 10,689. In case the market gaps down we could end up with an island reversal just like at the start of the month of May. The next support is from the trendline that comes from the March bottom and is that near 10,400.

The swing retained 2nd the negative divergences price from the June high to date. In a pullback it may go back to being oversold again.

BANK NIFTY
TIME	TREND	Up Level	Down Level
Short term trend	Down	23100	22100-21415

Bank nifty reverse from exactly the trendline of the last 2 highs at 23,080. The wedge like pattern poses a threat to the structure as wedge is also occur at the end of move. While I am attempting to market is a wave 2 pullback, it can be argued that the move from the April bottom is an A-B-C, 3-3-5 pattern. Staying below today's high prices may test the lower end of the wedge at 22,100 and below that the 20 day moving average at 21,415. A 50% retracement of wave 1 would come back to 20,070. The daily momentum retains a negative divergence with price so far. Follow up to be watched for tomorrow