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US Bonds and Equities setting up for a change in course

16 Mar 2021 ‚óŹ 07:41 AM

I am happy that some of you are already asking this question. Won't rising bond prices (falling yields), result in falling equities. US bonds and equities have had a long inverse relation that is rarely discussed when the media wants to report the day's price action. So while one day when bond yields rise in the stock market is down it is easy to blame rising interest rates for the market correction because it is an easily accepted relationship. The rising cost of borrowing must be bad for stocks. But as this chart shows bond yields have been rising since August 2020 and have broadly been accompanied by rising equities. This relationship can be back-dated for as many years as you want. So now as bonds get oversold and look like they can give you a near-term bump up, yes it can mean that they can be some kind of pressure on equity prices on the downside. This will not change the long-term trend of the individual asset classes but simply provides us a clue to the short to medium-term swings in the market. In other words, it does not have long-term consequences as of now. Also, this being a medium-term relationship do not expect it to have day-to-day repercussions. 

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