US 10 year Notes
10 Mar 2021 ● 07:43 AM
US bonds just reached an extreme again. Making a lower low we now have a positive divergence between the two bottoms on 25/02 and 04/03 on the RSI indicator. We are close to ending a prolonged decline in the bond market as sentiment reached an extreme as well. At both these bottoms, we see 9% bulls on the daily sentiment indicator. Meaning 91 % of the traders polled were bearish the bond market [T bonds]. This kind of data comes near the end of a move. The lowest reading since Feb of 2018. Sometimes the reversals are immediate and sometimes a price pattern like an ending diagonal will form. That I cannot call for. But the worst part of the bond market decline for this leg would have passed and we should get some relief here is what I can say. I am only calling for a counter-trend bounce in bonds that can last for a while, like a few months.