Oil marketing Stocks
11 Dec 2020 ● 02:10 PM
This is a chart of HPCL and it is moving higher from a triangle like pattern that we were anticipating earlier. But is this breakout going to work? The enthusiasm with PSU stocks recently could drive it higher but the point I am trying to raise is more long-term. Is it ready for another boom. History shows that the stock does well when the government announces reforms and disinvestment. This was true in 1992-1994 as well and later in 2002-2004. Both times the reforms did not follow. Rising Oil prices later played havoc as governments try to control oil prices to keep inflation down and the brunt of the subsidy is born by these companies in the form of Oil bonds or delayed payments. Now the last rally in these stocks also came on the back of reforms in the sector where prices were raised at the retail level and actual Oil prices were declining. But one factor has changed. Oil prices are again in a new bull market [in my view], and while the disinvestment of BPCL is on the cards it is an incomplete affair. What happens later. HPCLs last disinvestment was a fake sale to ONGC so indirectly still in the government's hands. If the past repeats, we will witness another lost decade for OMC stocks. Time will tell. I am avoiding covering them for now as long as Oil is in a bull market. I see rising inflation around the world and I wonder if they will be allowed to pass that on to the public. I could be wrong.