Nifty did not Beat Inflation for a decade because of the Dollar
24 Jan 2021 ● 07:39 AM
This chart is probably loud and clear and while I have published both separately a recent discussion on Twitter with @kapiltandon inspired in putting it together. He noted that the dollar and equities rose together between 2008-2019. But that is not what you see when you look at an inflation-adjusted Nifty or index. I have used the Sensex because it has data all the way back to 1980. Then you see a 9-10 year cycle of markets beating inflation and these cycles may be closely linked to the cycles in the dollar. The inflation-adjusted index was down from 1992 [Harshad Mehta] to 2001 [9/11] and similarly was also down or flat from 2008 [GFC] - 2019 [Covid]. But what has followed in the last year is a new 10 year high in the inflation-adjusted Sensex breaking out of the consolidation range just as it did the last time in 2004. A 4-year bull run followed that breakout, and another one may be in the works. The only view you need to get right here then is that on the dollar. So if you have read about the view that Deflation is coming tomorrow morning you are reading that from the Dollar bulls camp. Robert Prechter in his book "Conquer the Crash" in 2002 laid out a theory of all the same markets and how global liquidity was driving all markets up and down together. Then he created a clear case for a rising dollar in deflationary conditions and thus 'Cash is king' when the chips are down. What followed was a dollar bear market from 2002 to 2008. This is why his view took time to play out with the Financial collapse coming 6 years after his book in 2008. He went on to say that the FED would not be able to stop Deflation but QE 1-2-3 during 2008-2017, during a dollar bull market offset his expectations. Come 2021 his view remains a dollar bull market will resume, and all the Deflationists on Social Media share this common view except the likes of @lukegromen. So take your side and the rest is yours for the taking. My View? We started a dollar bear market in 2017, that saw a double top in 2020 and is now on the slide. This is naturally going to be bullish for equities. The deflation was visible in commodity prices and inflation-adjusted indices as below during 2008-2019, but not anymore. If you get the dollar right you get everything else right in 2021.