BSE FMCG Index

The FMCG index had conclusively close down for the calendar year 2019. In Jan 2020 are published a note stating that probably the 5th wave was over for the sector and an important top is in place. After calling a bottom in March I have often wondered whether, like many other sectors, FMCG too would join the rest in a final advance higher. However, the entire rally in the sector has been lethargic to say the least. HUL has underperformed since the month of April. The index itself close down for the month of August after a 3 wave rally from the March lows. The failure to complete an impulsive 5 wave advance means that the larger trend is still down or the sector is broadly consolidating and may not perform in the near-term. The chart below shows a completed 5th that may have been followed by a WXY structure and we are in wave Y down.