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BSE FMCG index

16 Feb 2021 ‚óŹ 03:26 PM

Here is a chart of the weekly BSE FMCG index that made a slightly higher high in 2021 relative to 2018 where it topped out for the 1st time. But unless this high is surpassed it looks like an almost double top at this moment. Earlier I had kept it open that if the bull run goes on it could drive FMCG stocks higher. In that case this index could be in an expanded flat where wave B can continue to higher highs. However, prices have started to roll over near the high of 2018 and the risk of a double top should not be ruled out as my weekly momentum indicator is now in sell mode. We can also watch the rising trendline from the march bottom which is at 12,200, and a break below it would also further confirm that the entire rise from the March lows remains a corrective patter or counter-trend in nature. Once proven we can anticipate that wave C down will go back to much lower lows, either a deeper retracement or back towards a double bottom [in case of a regular flat] near the March lows. It need not be a deep decline at this moment but the failure to make new highs simply means that the sector will underperform in the coming period unless the momentum changes.

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