Are US stocks overbought?
11 Jun 2020 ● 02:59 AM
It has been a long rally in US Indices and maybe we are in late stages. Elliott wave wise we are in wave iv of the move from the May bottom and one more higher high maybe coming before we are done. This shows an alternate wave count from the one discussed before where we can mark the entire move as 5 up.
However the reason this question is floating around is many sentiment measures to retail participation. The Put/Call ratio went below where it was at the Jan top for US Stocks raising a red flag. However on a broader measure we do not see large positions by traders. The COT report shows that hedge funds or traders were short and are just starting to cover shorts causing markets to get a boost near term. The top end of this chart shows number of contracts open long or short [minus sign], and the lower end chart shows the data in terms of standard deviation. A reading above or below 2 is an extreme, when longs or shorts are 2 standard deviations away from the average for a time period.
The next chart shows the above data net of commercials long/short along with the S&P index itself. This charts signal is not at an extreme yet.