31 Jan 2021 ● 12:17 PM
USDINR closed down for the 3rd consecutive month but still did not close below the 20-month average at 72.80 that I was waiting for a final confirmation that no upside is pending. It also closed down on weekly charts and the weekly momentum indicator remains in sell mode. The lower band is at 72.66 on weekly charts so once we start pushing below 72.60 we will see the weekly bands expand and the move lower will gain momentum. USDINR continued to diverge with the Nifty declining when the Nifty also went down. Eventually only one of the two will be right. Since September USDINR has not made a lower low after bouncing back and the decline has been very slow. So it has not confirmed the new highs of the market since Sept even though short term it has been falling. On the opposite side short term, it did not rise to confirm the fall in the market recently. All I can say looking at the USDINR stand-alone is that the trend readings are downward and the support in the range of 72.80-72.60 is important to watch for understanding what happens next.