23 Jan 2021 ● 07:58 AM
Today's discussion on USDINR is technical but looks at the case of USDINR breaking 72.80 and going lower toward 68.35.
Preferred Alternate pattern for USDINR. If USDINR breaks 72.80 especially on a monthly closing basis I will reverse to the bullish INR view that I took till Nov, and bullish INR = Bearish USDINR. So if we break 72.80 the first thing it means is that we do not go to 78 in wave E and the 5th wave. But how do we count the 5th wave as ended? One count I explored in June was to mark the 2016-2020 period as an ending but I do not like doing that because monthly cycles end at the bottom of 2018 which is ideally the wave 4 bottom. The only way to resolve this is as below. End the 5th wave at the top of 2018 and take the rest as an expanded flat. The Fibonacci rations fit this pattern as of now where B= 138.2% of A. From there wave C has to be 5 waves down, The formation of a downward slanting triangle at the top of wave B can confuse you in finding an impuse wvae but the wave 1 down starts only after the triangle. WAve 2 done we are in early stages of wave 3 that is subdividing. If that is true, on breaking 72.8 we should go to where 3=1 near 70.77 and maybe even 68.35 where wvae 3 = 161.8% of wave 1. We are currently in wave 3 of C down based on this wave count.