28 Jul 2020 ● 02:10 AM
The dollar index did what should have convinced most that a dollar bear market started, unless you are really pig headed about it. the recent decline started from a double top and has broken the rising trendline in blue from the 2010 low. The Dollar topped out actually in 2017 January and fell in 5 waves from there marked as A. Wave B is kind of an expanding triangle into the highs, and was a very volatile period for the dollar as bulls and bears put on a good fight. At every retracement in wave B the sentiment was extreme and it looked like the dollar bounce would end but it did not till the FED went parabolic on its monetary plan. Now we have started wave C down that will end at new lows in a large 5 wave decline. We may only be in wave 1 of that decline that is subdividing into 5 waves. Or we may just keep subdividing all the way down for the next few years. So far this particular move is still in wave III of III down so many more moves to go. Even in the short term after a bounce we may fall some more before we can say a low worth a 2-3 week bounce is at hand. That is how the set up is. If you understand expanding triangles then the pattern implications itself are near 89.30 by measuring the size of the triangle and projecting it down from the breakdown point as shown.