4 Mar 2021 ● 02:37 PM
Somebody asked me to look at the gold quarterly chart. I am however excluding the monthly because the quarterly chart has all green bars and might only close down for the quarter ending March 2021. Taking a step back therefore I have to explore the idea that the entire move was a 5 wave structure which ended with the extreme long positions discussed. The extremes and long positions were also there at the end of the 3rd wave in that move continued higher making it look like the data point was less relevant. Given the depth of the correction though it may have finally become relevant and the sentiment is now slowly turning to the negative side. The 38.2% retracement of the entire advance has therefore been completed in wave 2 circle. We await clear signs that 1/3 wave of larger degree can start. The seasonality of Jan to March did not play out, but it may be inverting. An inversion means that, if Jan to March was bearish then we probably end up with the march bottom and turned bullish going forward. Remember that March 2020 was also a bottom for gold prices.