Strike Analytics

Nifty Daily

18 Feb 2021 ● 02:30 PM

LONG%

SHORT%

75%

25%

Position Sizing model - Long % = percentage of indicators bullish v/s Short % = number of indicators bearish, Including both daily and weekly time frames.

  NIFTY          
 TIME TREND Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down  15431 15020-14740

The daily momentum indicator crossed over to the sell-side. Breaking 15170 we are in a short-term downtrend. Tomorrow is the last day of the week, and I am increasingly inclined to think that we are in wave II of 3, where wave 3 is subdividing into 5 waves. One of my observations after the budget rally was that post-budget rallies often fade before the real rally begins. Maybe that is what we are witnessing. The hourly wave count for the decline is not very clear and therefore we need to wait for an actual price reversal to confirm that wave II is complete, and wave III up can start. The 20 DMA at 14,740 might be the final support in case of a steeper decline. This will coincide with the 38.2% retracement of wave I. 23.6% is at 15,020 and should be the 1st level to watch out for support.

One of my observations after the budget rally was that post-budget rallies often fade before the real rally begins. Maybe that is what we are witnessing. The hourly wave count for the decline is not very clear and therefore we need to wait for an actual price reversal to confirm that wave II is complete, and wave III up can start

The previous swing low is at 14,977. Anywhere between now and that level we may look for the 1st support. A move above the falling trendline at 15,220 could be the 1st sign that the downward trend is reversed. Breaking 14977 we will decline to 14740

A move above the falling trendline at 15,220 could be the 1st sign that the downward trend is reversed. Breaking 14977 we will decline to 14740

The swing continues to decline and has had a divergence from the market for many days. Despite that, today we saw positive breath where there were more advances than declines. The MidCap and Smallcap index also closed positive. This makes it look like the problem is essentially with the nifty index but many other stocks and sectors are participating on the upside.

The swing continues to decline and has had a divergence from the market for many days. Despite that, today we saw positive breath where there were more advances than declines. The MidCap and Smallcap index also closed positive.

  BANK NIFTY        
 TIME TREND  Up Level   Down Level
 Short term trend Down  37708 35944-35428

Bank nifty is pushing below its lower band on hourly charts despite the bullish trend seen in public sector banks. Here too, I am inclined to think that this is wave II of 5 and we may either retrace 23.6% near 35,944, close to the previous swing low of 35,428, or go to the 38.2% retracement mark near 34,716, which is also very close to the 20 DMA. Once wave II is complete then we should head higher in wave III of 5.

Bank nifty is pushing below its lower band on hourly charts despite the bullish trend seen in public sector banks. Here too, I am inclined to think that this is wave II of 5 and we may either retrace 23.6% near 35,944, close to the previous swing low of 35,428, or go to the 38.2% retracement mark near 34,716, which is also very close to the 20 DMA.

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